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Three More Fallacies You Need To Watch For

Hey there!

Fallacies are everywhere. You tend to notice them when it’s more convenient or more aligned with what you already believe.

But the ones in this episode are particularly pernicious when it comes to starting or continuing a process or project.

Be careful with these.


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Hope this helps!

David

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Raw YouTube Captioning

hey there it’s David H Lawrence the 17th
man oh man the responses that I’m
getting on the fallacies and the biases
and stuff okay here are three more
things that you might want to consider
as you look at decision making as you
look at ideas that are presented to you
as you look at continuing with projects
that you’ve started or that you’re
considering starting let’s take a look
at these I gave you three last time
three more this time the first one is
the bird in the hand fallacy right the
bird in the hand fallacy is our tendency
to choose a smaller reward that we might
get sooner rather than delaying
gratification and getting a larger
reward that we might have to wait for
right so a bird in the hand worth two in
the bush that sort of thing
so it you know there are times when and
you’ve probably seen these little
experiments with toddlers where they
give them so many goldfish crackers and
they’re instructed to share them with
their friends and if they do share them
with their friends rather than eating
them which is like you know telling me
not to eat chocolate to not eat a
goldfish cracker for a toddler they’ll
get more and the question is can they
delay that gratification and when we
talk about our stuff you know would I
rather take something really easy like a
short audio book that I might make a
little bit of money from now rather than
taking on a larger project that would
take us a longer time to complete but
maybe give us more return and these
things are all over the place in life
it’s not just the projects that we take
on
but it’s the you know do I want to take
care of a a task that isn’t all that
glorifying or or satisfying or fun you
know sometimes it’s a little drudgery do
I want to do that just so that I can
enjoy something that I really like later
knowing that I finished that which I’ve
that which I’ve accomplished so that’s
the bird in the hand fallacy so watch
for that
also the overconfidence fallacy and I
almost didn’t include this because I
don’t want anybody to get the idea that
I’m trying to in any way shape or form
knock you down knock me down knock
anybody down but this is the fallacy
that we have that we have overconfidence
in ourselves we believe we are better
than we actually are or more likely we
believe that we know everything we need
to know to take care of any situation
and this is this makes it hard for us to
accept help from others and I’ve got a
video that I’m planning on doing coming
up on mentoring you know maybe it’s like
you know if I admit that I need help on
something then clearly I’m not a
professional or I’m not good enough to
do this so I’m just going to assume that
I am good enough to do this I can do
this I don’t need anybody’s help I’ll
take care of this myself you can never
stop learning I just got finished taking
two classes that you know I I did know a
lot about the subjects in each of the
classes and I did do well when it came
to doing the work in the classes but
there were always little tiny things
that that I was just fascinated with
that I could pick up off the ground
these little golden nuggets just lying
there just waiting for me because I was
open to the idea that I am NOT the best
in the world at this I’m pretty good and
maybe there are times when I feel like
I’m better than I actually am I you know
it happens but I am definitely open to
learning more even if it’s something
that I feel I’m expert at because you
never know there are always gonna be
people that are better than you they’re
always gonna be people that are not as
good as you but you can learn from both
ends of the spectrum with you in the
middle and then finally in this
particular video let’s talk about the
sunk cost fallacy and this one is really
hard for me because you put effort into
something you lay the groundwork you
make your plans you go and you get the
assets that you need you get the
training you need to get it taken care
of and then it doesn’t work out
it serves it’s useful life and if you
continue to do things that way you’re
not gonna get the same return that you
got throughout the course of its useful
life right it’s it’s twofold actually
it’s projects that you thought would
kick off a great deal of benefit but
they don’t but because you put so much
work in them they’re hard to let go of
right oh but I’ve spent so much time on
this I need to you know it’s like people
have certain tools that they use
software that they use processes that
they use and they’ve always used those
and they put a lot of work into learning
how to do those things and use those
things well so when another possibility
comes along it’s really hard to let go
of what you’re familiar with and what
you know and what you’ve sunk costs into
and then it’s also one of those things
where if you and again I’m gonna do a
video on this as well if you get started
in something and you can see very
clearly it’s not going to do what you
thought it was going to do that’s the
time to kill your baby that’s the time
to say okay so that you don’t have the
regret of sinking a lot of costs into
something that you thought was going to
be very fruitful but wasn’t so the
burden hand fallacy the overconfidence
fallacy and the sunk cost fallacy you
know you think about these fallacies and
you think how in the world do we ever
get anything done in a great way in a
positive and effective way with all of
these fallacies just lurking around the
corner waiting to nail us right so any
of these things ring for you any of
these things ring true for you I’ve ever
been in a situation where you’ve fallen
prey to one of these fallacies leave me
a comment below this video if you’re on
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YouTube will play it for you I’m David H
Lawrence xvii thanks so much for
watching and I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

2 Responses to Three More Fallacies You Need To Watch For

  1. Veleka May 13, 2019 at 2:57 am #

    Re the sunk cost fallacy… I spent over $20,000 on training and equipment and sound-proofing a home studio to do audiobook narration, and I earned a grand total of $2853.75 in 2018 before I realized I had made a bad business decision. It’s so crazy because I’ve been doing voiceover since I was eight years old, and I don’t understand why I was not picked at ACX except once for a royalty share. I still don’t understand it. I listen to my own work on Audible, and I think I’m good. So if you have the time to listen to any of my clips and can advise me of what is not good about my work, I would appreciate your input.

    It’s just devastating since narrating audiobooks was how I was going to finance my writing career, and now I’m looking into proofreading and other hustles. I tell myself that despite being a professional actress who got vested in SAG by doing commercials that I was not chosen because God has other plans for me, but I don’t actually know. I’m just sad that my dream turned into ashes.

    So thanks for letting me cry on your shoulder. Who knows? Maybe I’m meant to write the Great American Novel and that’s why it turned out this way. But if I do, who will narrate it?

  2. John May 15, 2019 at 7:05 pm #

    Veleka, I am so sorry to hear your significant investment hasn’t born much fruit up to this point. I remember hearing you workout on our pro calls and thinking you sounded wonderful and would surely be in demand. It is disheartening to read the harsh reality of your experience after perceiving and having you confirm your all-in commitment financially and otherwise. I hope there is a snowball effect to the investment you’ve sown that continues to build and ultimately lead to the results you anticipated albeit in a longer time frame.

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